Abstract
Background:
Because interventions that prevent and treat events due to cardiovascular disease are applied to different, but overlapping, segments of the population, it can be difficult to estimate their effectiveness if formal calculations are not available.
Methods:
Markov chain analysis, including sensitivity analysis, was used with a hypothetical population resembling that of Olmsted County, MN, aged 30 to 84 in the year 2000 to compare the estimated impact of three interventions to prevent sudden death: (1) raising blood levels of n-3 (omega-3) fatty acids, (2) distributing automated external defibrillators (AEDs), and (3) implanting cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) in appropriate candidates. The analysis was performed in 2004, 2005, and 2006.
Results:
Raising median n-3 fatty acid levels would be expected to lower total mortality by 6.4% (range from sensitivity analysis = 1.6% to 10.3%). Distributing AEDs would be expected to lower total mortality by 0.8% (0.2% to 1.3%), and implanting ICDs would be expected to lower total mortality by 3.3% (0.6% to 8.7%). Three fourths of the reduction in total mortality due to n-3 fatty acid augmentation would accrue from raising n-3 fatty acid levels in the healthy population.
Conclusions:
Based on central values of candidacy and efficacy, raising n-3 fatty acid levels would have about eight times the impact of distributing AEDs and two times the impact of implanting ICDs. Raising n-3 fatty acid levels would also reduce rates of sudden death among the subpopulation that does not qualify for ICDs.
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